Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co., Ltd. (603601.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.11 - $2.00$1.48
Multi-Stage$1.63 - $1.79$1.71
Blended Fair Value$1.60
Current Price$5.01
Upside-68.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.14%29.00%0.090.060.080.150.080.090.080.010.090.01
YoY Growth--51.56%-23.37%-47.64%86.37%-12.39%21.94%985.80%-92.10%505.03%103.19%
Dividend Yield--2.61%1.73%1.51%2.31%1.01%1.22%1.45%0.13%1.34%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.2310.146.08
Cash Retained (M)43.2643.2643.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.23-10.14-6.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.0333.1237.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,023.791,023.791,023.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Fair Value$1.11$1.48$2.00
Upside / Downside-77.82%-70.38%-60.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.1383.0384.9786.9688.9991.0893.81
Payout Ratio46.68%55.34%64.01%72.67%81.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.8745.9554.3963.2072.3881.9786.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate1.34%2.34%3.34%
Year 1 PV (M)42.4842.9043.32
Year 2 PV (M)46.4847.4048.33
Year 3 PV (M)49.9251.4152.93
Year 4 PV (M)52.8554.9757.15
Year 5 PV (M)55.3358.1161.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,421.161,492.681,567.05
Equity Value (M)1,668.221,747.471,829.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1,023.791,023.791,023.79
Fair Value$1.63$1.71$1.79
Upside / Downside-67.48%-65.93%-64.33%

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