Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hengtong Logistics Co., Ltd. (603223.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TruckingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.82 - $29.29$14.38
Multi-Stage$7.54 - $8.25$7.89
Blended Fair Value$11.14
Current Price$9.77
Upside13.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS53.14%6.04%0.110.050.040.060.000.010.030.020.010.01
YoY Growth--140.67%6.80%-26.67%4,899.99%-91.06%-49.38%56.00%42.86%-18.22%-76.87%
Dividend Yield--1.31%0.55%0.30%0.40%0.01%0.28%0.60%0.31%0.15%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)232.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)156.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.4729.0417.43
Cash Retained (M)156.93156.93156.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.47-29.04-17.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)110.46127.89139.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)706.66706.66706.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Fair Value$8.82$14.38$29.29
Upside / Downside-9.68%47.21%199.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)232.35244.05256.34269.25282.81297.06305.97
Payout Ratio32.46%43.97%55.47%66.98%78.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.41107.30142.20180.35221.98267.35283.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Year 1 PV (M)99.20100.15101.10
Year 2 PV (M)121.54123.89126.26
Year 3 PV (M)142.51146.65150.88
Year 4 PV (M)162.16168.48174.99
Year 5 PV (M)180.55189.40198.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,619.424,845.745,080.84
Equity Value (M)5,325.375,574.315,832.66
Shares Outstanding (M)706.66706.66706.66
Fair Value$7.54$7.89$8.25
Upside / Downside-22.87%-19.26%-15.52%

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