DDM Analysis: 603223.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.82 - $29.29	$14.38
Multi-Stage	$7.54 - $8.25	$7.89
Blended Fair Value	$11.14
Current Price	$9.77
Upside	13.97%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	53.14%	6.04%	0.11	0.05	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	140.67%	6.80%	-26.67%	4,899.99%	-91.06%	-49.38%	56.00%	42.86%	-18.22%	-76.87%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.31%	0.55%	0.30%	0.40%	0.01%	0.28%	0.60%	0.31%	0.15%	0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	232.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	75.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)	156.93

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	46.47	29.04	17.43
Cash Retained (M)	156.93	156.93	156.93
(-) Cash Required (M)	-46.47	-29.04	-17.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	110.46	127.89	139.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	706.66	706.66	706.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.18	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.11	0.11	0.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.18	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.26	0.29	0.30
WACC / Discount Rate	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%
Growth Rate	4.04%	5.04%	6.04%
Fair Value	$8.82	$14.38	$29.29
Upside / Downside	-9.68%	47.21%	199.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	232.35	244.05	256.34	269.25	282.81	297.06	305.97
Payout Ratio	32.46%	43.97%	55.47%	66.98%	78.49%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	75.41	107.30	142.20	180.35	221.98	267.35	283.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%
Growth Rate	4.04%	5.04%	6.04%
Year 1 PV (M)	99.20	100.15	101.10
Year 2 PV (M)	121.54	123.89	126.26
Year 3 PV (M)	142.51	146.65	150.88
Year 4 PV (M)	162.16	168.48	174.99
Year 5 PV (M)	180.55	189.40	198.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,619.42	4,845.74	5,080.84
Equity Value (M)	5,325.37	5,574.31	5,832.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	706.66	706.66	706.66
Fair Value	$7.54	$7.89	$8.25
Upside / Downside	-22.87%	-19.26%	-15.52%

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Sector

Hengtong Logistics Co., Ltd. (603223.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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