Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co., Ltd. (002438.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.23 - $118.10$110.67
Multi-Stage$17.16 - $18.79$17.96
Blended Fair Value$64.32
Current Price$12.85
Upside400.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.74%26.59%0.220.050.110.080.080.060.020.020.040.02
YoY Growth--333.03%-53.39%38.98%-6.47%29.61%166.05%0.00%-45.87%115.77%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.88%0.45%0.84%0.49%0.64%0.88%0.29%0.35%0.44%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)301.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)198.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)60.2837.6722.60
Cash Retained (M)198.87198.87198.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-60.28-37.67-22.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)138.59161.20176.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)507.54507.54507.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$48.23$110.67$118.10
Upside / Downside275.37%761.28%819.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)301.39320.98341.84364.06387.73412.93425.32
Payout Ratio34.02%45.21%56.41%67.61%78.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.52145.12192.83246.13305.54371.64393.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)134.94136.22137.49
Year 2 PV (M)166.71169.89173.09
Year 3 PV (M)197.85203.53209.32
Year 4 PV (M)228.37237.16246.19
Year 5 PV (M)258.28270.75283.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,725.678,098.838,486.26
Equity Value (M)8,711.839,116.379,536.06
Shares Outstanding (M)507.54507.54507.54
Fair Value$17.16$17.96$18.79
Upside / Downside33.58%39.78%46.22%

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