DDM Analysis: 002438.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$48.23 - $118.10	$110.67
Multi-Stage	$17.16 - $18.79	$17.96
Blended Fair Value	$64.32
Current Price	$12.85
Upside	400.53%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	27.74%	26.59%	0.22	0.05	0.11	0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	333.03%	-53.39%	38.98%	-6.47%	29.61%	166.05%	0.00%	-45.87%	115.77%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.88%	0.45%	0.84%	0.49%	0.64%	0.88%	0.29%	0.35%	0.44%	0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	301.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	102.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	198.87

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	60.28	37.67	22.60
Cash Retained (M)	198.87	198.87	198.87
(-) Cash Required (M)	-60.28	-37.67	-22.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	138.59	161.20	176.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	507.54	507.54	507.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.32	0.35
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.32	0.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.48	0.52	0.55
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$48.23	$110.67	$118.10
Upside / Downside	275.37%	761.28%	819.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	301.39	320.98	341.84	364.06	387.73	412.93	425.32
Payout Ratio	34.02%	45.21%	56.41%	67.61%	78.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	102.52	145.12	192.83	246.13	305.54	371.64	393.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	134.94	136.22	137.49
Year 2 PV (M)	166.71	169.89	173.09
Year 3 PV (M)	197.85	203.53	209.32
Year 4 PV (M)	228.37	237.16	246.19
Year 5 PV (M)	258.28	270.75	283.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,725.67	8,098.83	8,486.26
Equity Value (M)	8,711.83	9,116.37	9,536.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	507.54	507.54	507.54
Fair Value	$17.16	$17.96	$18.79
Upside / Downside	33.58%	39.78%	46.22%

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Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co., Ltd. (002438.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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