DDM Analysis: 002278.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.08 - $4.16	$2.89
Multi-Stage	$10.23 - $11.31	$10.76
Blended Fair Value	$6.83
Current Price	$9.27
Upside	-26.35%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	3.98%	-6.46%	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	331.37%	-71.71%	2.50%	-2.82%	0.00%	2,966.01%	194.04%	-6.42%	-99.33%	-25.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.73%	0.29%	0.91%	0.79%	0.84%	0.89%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	47.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)	22.89

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.54	5.96	3.58
Cash Retained (M)	22.89	22.89	22.89
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.54	-5.96	-3.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.36	16.93	19.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	361.89	361.89	361.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.07	0.07	0.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.11	0.12	0.12
WACC / Discount Rate	1.52%	1.52%	1.52%
Growth Rate	-3.37%	-2.37%	-1.37%
Fair Value	$2.08	$2.89	$4.16
Upside / Downside	-77.53%	-68.79%	-55.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	47.68	46.55	45.45	44.37	43.32	42.30	43.57
Payout Ratio	51.99%	59.59%	67.19%	74.80%	82.40%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24.79	27.74	30.54	33.19	35.70	38.07	40.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	1.52%	1.52%	1.52%
Growth Rate	-3.37%	-2.37%	-1.37%
Year 1 PV (M)	27.04	27.32	27.60
Year 2 PV (M)	29.03	29.63	30.24
Year 3 PV (M)	30.75	31.72	32.70
Year 4 PV (M)	32.25	33.60	35.00
Year 5 PV (M)	33.53	35.30	37.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,549.19	3,736.68	3,932.00
Equity Value (M)	3,701.79	3,894.25	4,094.70
Shares Outstanding (M)	361.89	361.89	361.89
Fair Value	$10.23	$10.76	$11.31
Upside / Downside	10.35%	16.08%	22.06%

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Sector

Shanghai SK Petroleum & Chemical Equipment Corporation Ltd. (002278.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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