Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai SK Petroleum & Chemical Equipment Corporation Ltd. (002278.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.08 - $4.16$2.89
Multi-Stage$10.23 - $11.31$10.76
Blended Fair Value$6.83
Current Price$9.27
Upside-26.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.98%-6.46%0.060.010.050.050.050.050.000.000.000.09
YoY Growth--331.37%-71.71%2.50%-2.82%0.00%2,966.01%194.04%-6.42%-99.33%-25.75%
Dividend Yield--0.73%0.29%0.91%0.79%0.84%0.89%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.545.963.58
Cash Retained (M)22.8922.8922.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.54-5.96-3.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.3616.9319.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)361.89361.89361.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate1.52%1.52%1.52%
Growth Rate-3.37%-2.37%-1.37%
Fair Value$2.08$2.89$4.16
Upside / Downside-77.53%-68.79%-55.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.6846.5545.4544.3743.3242.3043.57
Payout Ratio51.99%59.59%67.19%74.80%82.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.7927.7430.5433.1935.7038.0740.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.52%1.52%1.52%
Growth Rate-3.37%-2.37%-1.37%
Year 1 PV (M)27.0427.3227.60
Year 2 PV (M)29.0329.6330.24
Year 3 PV (M)30.7531.7232.70
Year 4 PV (M)32.2533.6035.00
Year 5 PV (M)33.5335.3037.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,549.193,736.683,932.00
Equity Value (M)3,701.793,894.254,094.70
Shares Outstanding (M)361.89361.89361.89
Fair Value$10.23$10.76$11.31
Upside / Downside10.35%16.08%22.06%

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