Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Stonehill Technology Co., Ltd. (002195.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.20 - $0.28$0.24
Multi-Stage$0.29 - $0.32$0.30
Blended Fair Value$0.27
Current Price$7.86
Upside-96.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-21.87%18.03%0.010.020.020.000.020.040.020.020.020.01
YoY Growth---48.58%-8.24%792.64%-88.73%-38.66%44.86%22.92%15.90%181.77%209.87%
Dividend Yield--0.19%0.67%0.67%0.11%1.15%1.29%0.50%0.59%0.43%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.5321.5812.95
Cash Retained (M)170.87170.87170.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.53-21.58-12.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)136.34149.29157.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,651.485,651.485,651.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.20$0.24$0.28
Upside / Downside-97.46%-96.94%-96.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172.67170.95169.24167.54165.87164.21169.14
Payout Ratio1.04%18.83%36.63%54.42%72.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.8032.2061.9891.17119.77147.79156.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)28.9729.2729.57
Year 2 PV (M)50.2051.2352.27
Year 3 PV (M)66.4568.5070.60
Year 4 PV (M)78.5581.8185.16
Year 5 PV (M)87.2391.7796.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,319.171,387.871,459.39
Equity Value (M)1,630.571,710.441,793.48
Shares Outstanding (M)5,651.485,651.485,651.48
Fair Value$0.29$0.30$0.32
Upside / Downside-96.33%-96.15%-95.96%

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