DDM Analysis: 002195.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.20 - $0.28	$0.24
Multi-Stage	$0.29 - $0.32	$0.30
Blended Fair Value	$0.27
Current Price	$7.86
Upside	-96.54%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-21.87%	18.03%	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-48.58%	-8.24%	792.64%	-88.73%	-38.66%	44.86%	22.92%	15.90%	181.77%	209.87%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.19%	0.67%	0.67%	0.11%	1.15%	1.29%	0.50%	0.59%	0.43%	0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	172.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	170.87

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	34.53	21.58	12.95
Cash Retained (M)	170.87	170.87	170.87
(-) Cash Required (M)	-34.53	-21.58	-12.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	136.34	149.29	157.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,651.48	5,651.48	5,651.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.02	0.03	0.03
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.20	$0.24	$0.28
Upside / Downside	-97.46%	-96.94%	-96.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	172.67	170.95	169.24	167.54	165.87	164.21	169.14
Payout Ratio	1.04%	18.83%	36.63%	54.42%	72.21%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.80	32.20	61.98	91.17	119.77	147.79	156.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	28.97	29.27	29.57
Year 2 PV (M)	50.20	51.23	52.27
Year 3 PV (M)	66.45	68.50	70.60
Year 4 PV (M)	78.55	81.81	85.16
Year 5 PV (M)	87.23	91.77	96.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,319.17	1,387.87	1,459.39
Equity Value (M)	1,630.57	1,710.44	1,793.48
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,651.48	5,651.48	5,651.48
Fair Value	$0.29	$0.30	$0.32
Upside / Downside	-96.33%	-96.15%	-95.96%

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Shanghai Stonehill Technology Co., Ltd. (002195.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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