Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry Co.,Ltd. (600103.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.32 - $0.53$0.41
Multi-Stage$1.18 - $1.31$1.24
Blended Fair Value$0.83
Current Price$3.68
Upside-77.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.25%-4.30%0.030.060.010.010.010.010.020.030.030.04
YoY Growth---54.03%642.58%-46.32%-0.68%6.94%-12.92%-38.84%-17.71%-17.43%-8.55%
Dividend Yield--1.21%2.69%0.30%0.55%0.67%0.68%0.61%0.92%0.78%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.607.884.73
Cash Retained (M)22.3822.3822.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.60-7.88-4.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.7714.5017.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,210.142,210.142,210.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.03
WACC / Discount Rate4.76%4.76%4.76%
Growth Rate-2.22%-1.22%-0.22%
Fair Value$0.32$0.41$0.53
Upside / Downside-91.32%-88.81%-85.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.0062.2461.4860.7359.9959.2561.03
Payout Ratio64.49%69.59%74.69%79.79%84.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.6343.3145.9248.4650.9353.3356.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.76%4.76%4.76%
Growth Rate-2.22%-1.22%-0.22%
Year 1 PV (M)40.9241.3441.76
Year 2 PV (M)40.9941.8442.69
Year 3 PV (M)40.8842.1443.44
Year 4 PV (M)40.5942.2844.02
Year 5 PV (M)40.1642.2644.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,411.122,536.962,668.00
Equity Value (M)2,614.662,746.812,884.34
Shares Outstanding (M)2,210.142,210.142,210.14
Fair Value$1.18$1.24$1.31
Upside / Downside-67.85%-66.23%-64.54%

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