DDM Analysis: 600103.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.32 - $0.53	$0.41
Multi-Stage	$1.18 - $1.31	$1.24
Blended Fair Value	$0.83
Current Price	$3.68
Upside	-77.52%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	14.25%	-4.30%	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-54.03%	642.58%	-46.32%	-0.68%	6.94%	-12.92%	-38.84%	-17.71%	-17.43%	-8.55%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.21%	2.69%	0.30%	0.55%	0.67%	0.68%	0.61%	0.92%	0.78%	0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	63.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)	22.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	12.60	7.88	4.73
Cash Retained (M)	22.38	22.38	22.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-12.60	-7.88	-4.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9.77	14.50	17.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,210.14	2,210.14	2,210.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.02	0.02	0.03
WACC / Discount Rate	4.76%	4.76%	4.76%
Growth Rate	-2.22%	-1.22%	-0.22%
Fair Value	$0.32	$0.41	$0.53
Upside / Downside	-91.32%	-88.81%	-85.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	63.00	62.24	61.48	60.73	59.99	59.25	61.03
Payout Ratio	64.49%	69.59%	74.69%	79.79%	84.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.63	43.31	45.92	48.46	50.93	53.33	56.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.76%	4.76%	4.76%
Growth Rate	-2.22%	-1.22%	-0.22%
Year 1 PV (M)	40.92	41.34	41.76
Year 2 PV (M)	40.99	41.84	42.69
Year 3 PV (M)	40.88	42.14	43.44
Year 4 PV (M)	40.59	42.28	44.02
Year 5 PV (M)	40.16	42.26	44.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,411.12	2,536.96	2,668.00
Equity Value (M)	2,614.66	2,746.81	2,884.34
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,210.14	2,210.14	2,210.14
Fair Value	$1.18	$1.24	$1.31
Upside / Downside	-67.85%	-66.23%	-64.54%

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Fujian Qingshan Paper Industry Co.,Ltd. (600103.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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