Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shaanxi Panlong Pharmaceutical Group Limited By Share Ltd (002864.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$194.90 - $229.62$215.19
Multi-Stage$53.44 - $58.57$55.96
Blended Fair Value$135.57
Current Price$29.54
Upside358.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.12%31.47%0.230.230.200.170.160.080.080.000.010.01
YoY Growth--0.92%15.24%17.86%8.29%90.61%0.00%2,315.05%-73.31%-3.21%-12.60%
Dividend Yield--0.85%0.78%0.52%0.28%0.68%0.31%0.23%0.01%0.09%0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)120.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.1015.069.04
Cash Retained (M)86.4986.4986.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.10-15.06-9.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.3971.4377.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.37104.37104.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.680.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.680.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$194.90$215.19$229.62
Upside / Downside559.77%628.46%677.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)120.51128.34136.68145.56155.03165.10170.06
Payout Ratio28.23%40.58%52.94%65.29%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.0152.0872.3595.04120.37148.59157.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)49.0249.4949.95
Year 2 PV (M)64.1065.3266.56
Year 3 PV (M)79.2681.5383.85
Year 4 PV (M)94.4898.12101.85
Year 5 PV (M)109.78115.09120.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,180.675,430.905,690.70
Equity Value (M)5,577.325,840.446,113.50
Shares Outstanding (M)104.37104.37104.37
Fair Value$53.44$55.96$58.57
Upside / Downside80.90%89.43%98.29%

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