DDM Analysis: 002864.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$194.90 - $229.62	$215.19
Multi-Stage	$53.44 - $58.57	$55.96
Blended Fair Value	$135.57
Current Price	$29.54
Upside	358.95%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.12%	31.47%	0.23	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	0.92%	15.24%	17.86%	8.29%	90.61%	0.00%	2,315.05%	-73.31%	-3.21%	-12.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.85%	0.78%	0.52%	0.28%	0.68%	0.31%	0.23%	0.01%	0.09%	0.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	120.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	34.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)	86.49

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	24.10	15.06	9.04
Cash Retained (M)	86.49	86.49	86.49
(-) Cash Required (M)	-24.10	-15.06	-9.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)	62.39	71.43	77.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	104.37	104.37	104.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.60	0.68	0.74
LTM Dividend per Share	0.33	0.33	0.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.60	0.68	0.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.92	1.01	1.07
WACC / Discount Rate	5.24%	5.24%	5.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$194.90	$215.19	$229.62
Upside / Downside	559.77%	628.46%	677.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	120.51	128.34	136.68	145.56	155.03	165.10	170.06
Payout Ratio	28.23%	40.58%	52.94%	65.29%	77.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	34.01	52.08	72.35	95.04	120.37	148.59	157.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.24%	5.24%	5.24%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	49.02	49.49	49.95
Year 2 PV (M)	64.10	65.32	66.56
Year 3 PV (M)	79.26	81.53	83.85
Year 4 PV (M)	94.48	98.12	101.85
Year 5 PV (M)	109.78	115.09	120.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,180.67	5,430.90	5,690.70
Equity Value (M)	5,577.32	5,840.44	6,113.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	104.37	104.37	104.37
Fair Value	$53.44	$55.96	$58.57
Upside / Downside	80.90%	89.43%	98.29%

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Shaanxi Panlong Pharmaceutical Group Limited By Share Ltd (002864.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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