Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai NAR Industrial Co., Ltd (002825.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.62 - $95.31$89.32
Multi-Stage$14.17 - $15.51$14.83
Blended Fair Value$52.08
Current Price$9.73
Upside435.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.94%8.60%0.150.220.130.210.090.040.030.060.000.06
YoY Growth---31.54%70.35%-36.40%138.27%109.63%39.72%-50.05%0.00%-100.00%-17.38%
Dividend Yield--1.82%2.98%1.36%2.22%1.15%0.56%0.34%0.68%0.00%1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)162.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.5720.3512.21
Cash Retained (M)118.56118.56118.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.57-20.35-12.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.9998.20106.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)339.77339.77339.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.62$89.32$95.31
Upside / Downside338.01%818.02%879.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)162.84173.42184.70196.70209.49223.10229.80
Payout Ratio27.19%39.75%52.32%64.88%77.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.2868.9496.63127.61162.22200.79212.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)64.1664.7765.37
Year 2 PV (M)83.6885.2786.88
Year 3 PV (M)102.85105.80108.81
Year 4 PV (M)121.66126.34131.15
Year 5 PV (M)140.14146.91153.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,301.154,508.904,724.59
Equity Value (M)4,813.635,037.985,270.74
Shares Outstanding (M)339.77339.77339.77
Fair Value$14.17$14.83$15.51
Upside / Downside45.60%52.39%59.43%

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