DDM Analysis: 002825.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$42.62 - $95.31	$89.32
Multi-Stage	$14.17 - $15.51	$14.83
Blended Fair Value	$52.08
Current Price	$9.73
Upside	435.20%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	29.94%	8.60%	0.15	0.22	0.13	0.21	0.09	0.04	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	-31.54%	70.35%	-36.40%	138.27%	109.63%	39.72%	-50.05%	0.00%	-100.00%	-17.38%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.82%	2.98%	1.36%	2.22%	1.15%	0.56%	0.34%	0.68%	0.00%	1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	162.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	44.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	118.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	32.57	20.35	12.21
Cash Retained (M)	118.56	118.56	118.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-32.57	-20.35	-12.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)	85.99	98.20	106.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	339.77	339.77	339.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.29	0.31
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.29	0.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.38	0.42	0.44
WACC / Discount Rate	6.45%	6.45%	6.45%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$42.62	$89.32	$95.31
Upside / Downside	338.01%	818.02%	879.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	162.84	173.42	184.70	196.70	209.49	223.10	229.80
Payout Ratio	27.19%	39.75%	52.32%	64.88%	77.44%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	44.28	68.94	96.63	127.61	162.22	200.79	212.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.45%	6.45%	6.45%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	64.16	64.77	65.37
Year 2 PV (M)	83.68	85.27	86.88
Year 3 PV (M)	102.85	105.80	108.81
Year 4 PV (M)	121.66	126.34	131.15
Year 5 PV (M)	140.14	146.91	153.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,301.15	4,508.90	4,724.59
Equity Value (M)	4,813.63	5,037.98	5,270.74
Shares Outstanding (M)	339.77	339.77	339.77
Fair Value	$14.17	$14.83	$15.51
Upside / Downside	45.60%	52.39%	59.43%

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Shanghai NAR Industrial Co., Ltd (002825.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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