Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co., Ltd. (000021.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.62 - $27.37$18.06
Multi-Stage$9.36 - $10.21$9.78
Blended Fair Value$13.92
Current Price$27.87
Upside-50.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.48%20.06%0.290.130.150.160.060.090.050.050.050.05
YoY Growth--125.55%-13.33%-6.25%182.86%-40.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.57%0.92%0.89%1.41%0.29%0.55%0.48%0.54%0.51%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,024.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)369.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)654.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)204.94128.0976.85
Cash Retained (M)654.72654.72654.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-204.94-128.09-76.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)449.78526.64577.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,565.001,565.001,565.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.62$18.06$27.37
Upside / Downside-54.72%-35.21%-1.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,024.701,091.301,162.241,237.781,318.241,403.921,446.04
Payout Ratio36.11%46.88%57.66%68.44%79.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)369.97511.65670.19847.171,044.321,263.531,337.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)461.28465.65470.02
Year 2 PV (M)544.72555.09565.57
Year 3 PV (M)620.77638.59656.75
Year 4 PV (M)689.90716.43743.72
Year 5 PV (M)752.53788.88826.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,580.5212,139.8612,720.61
Equity Value (M)14,649.7115,304.5015,983.29
Shares Outstanding (M)1,565.001,565.001,565.00
Fair Value$9.36$9.78$10.21
Upside / Downside-66.41%-64.91%-63.36%

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