DDM Analysis: 000021.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.62 - $27.37	$18.06
Multi-Stage	$9.36 - $10.21	$9.78
Blended Fair Value	$13.92
Current Price	$27.87
Upside	-50.06%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	25.48%	20.06%	0.29	0.13	0.15	0.16	0.06	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	125.55%	-13.33%	-6.25%	182.86%	-40.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.57%	0.92%	0.89%	1.41%	0.29%	0.55%	0.48%	0.54%	0.51%	0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,024.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	369.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	654.72

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	204.94	128.09	76.85
Cash Retained (M)	654.72	654.72	654.72
(-) Cash Required (M)	-204.94	-128.09	-76.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	449.78	526.64	577.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,565.00	1,565.00	1,565.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.34	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.24	0.24	0.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.34	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.52	0.57	0.61
WACC / Discount Rate	9.88%	9.88%	9.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$12.62	$18.06	$27.37
Upside / Downside	-54.72%	-35.21%	-1.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,024.70	1,091.30	1,162.24	1,237.78	1,318.24	1,403.92	1,446.04
Payout Ratio	36.11%	46.88%	57.66%	68.44%	79.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	369.97	511.65	670.19	847.17	1,044.32	1,263.53	1,337.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.88%	9.88%	9.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	461.28	465.65	470.02
Year 2 PV (M)	544.72	555.09	565.57
Year 3 PV (M)	620.77	638.59	656.75
Year 4 PV (M)	689.90	716.43	743.72
Year 5 PV (M)	752.53	788.88	826.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,580.52	12,139.86	12,720.61
Equity Value (M)	14,649.71	15,304.50	15,983.29
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,565.00	1,565.00	1,565.00
Fair Value	$9.36	$9.78	$10.21
Upside / Downside	-66.41%	-64.91%	-63.36%

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Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co., Ltd. (000021.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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