Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited (2328.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.98 - $132.30$83.47
Multi-Stage$41.59 - $45.37$43.44
Blended Fair Value$63.46
Current Price$13.87
Upside357.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.71%17.82%0.700.480.410.380.460.270.230.210.200.18
YoY Growth--45.81%17.44%8.52%-18.65%69.49%20.71%9.38%1.64%12.59%33.16%
Dividend Yield--6.06%5.68%6.22%7.23%9.33%3.24%3.21%2.47%2.81%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60,958.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26,135.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,823.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12,191.607,619.754,571.85
Cash Retained (M)34,823.0034,823.0034,823.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-12,191.60-7,619.75-4,571.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)22,631.4027,203.2530,251.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,242.0022,242.0022,242.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.221.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.221.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.192.402.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.98$83.47$132.30
Upside / Downside310.78%501.78%853.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60,958.0064,920.2769,140.0973,634.1978,420.4283,517.7486,023.28
Payout Ratio42.87%52.30%61.72%71.15%80.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26,135.0033,952.6742,676.2152,390.3763,187.0675,165.9779,571.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30,699.0830,990.0731,281.05
Year 2 PV (M)34,889.0235,553.5636,224.36
Year 3 PV (M)38,726.2839,837.9740,970.74
Year 4 PV (M)42,231.2543,855.3445,525.84
Year 5 PV (M)45,423.2847,617.2449,895.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)733,029.38768,434.97805,195.62
Equity Value (M)924,998.29966,289.161,009,092.79
Shares Outstanding (M)22,242.0022,242.0022,242.00
Fair Value$41.59$43.44$45.37
Upside / Downside199.84%213.23%227.10%

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