Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shandong Longquan Pipeline Engineering Co.,LTD (002671.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.08 - $1.49$1.29
Multi-Stage$1.63 - $1.79$1.70
Blended Fair Value$1.50
Current Price$4.87
Upside-69.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.16%-10.87%0.040.040.050.040.040.040.070.070.060.12
YoY Growth---8.21%-11.35%30.38%-2.33%-13.48%-41.42%0.40%14.20%-46.35%-2.07%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.91%1.08%0.64%0.89%0.96%1.32%1.18%0.60%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6213.518.11
Cash Retained (M)89.6789.6789.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.62-13.51-8.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.0576.1681.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)564.55564.55564.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate-3.21%-2.21%-1.21%
Fair Value$1.08$1.29$1.49
Upside / Downside-77.80%-73.53%-69.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.12105.73103.40101.1198.8896.7099.60
Payout Ratio17.06%31.65%46.24%60.82%75.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.4533.4647.8161.5074.5787.0392.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate-3.21%-2.21%-1.21%
Year 1 PV (M)29.9730.2830.59
Year 2 PV (M)38.3539.1539.95
Year 3 PV (M)44.1945.5846.99
Year 4 PV (M)47.9950.0052.08
Year 5 PV (M)50.1652.8155.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)707.43744.73783.60
Equity Value (M)918.10962.551,008.78
Shares Outstanding (M)564.55564.55564.55
Fair Value$1.63$1.70$1.79
Upside / Downside-66.61%-64.99%-63.31%

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