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PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited (2328.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156.34 - $545.05$510.79
Multi-Stage$70.52 - $77.13$73.77
Blended Fair Value$292.28
Current Price$13.87
Upside2,007.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.71%17.82%0.700.480.410.380.460.270.230.210.200.18
YoY Growth--45.81%17.44%8.52%-18.65%69.49%20.71%9.38%1.64%12.59%33.16%
Dividend Yield--6.06%5.68%6.22%7.23%9.33%3.24%3.21%2.47%2.81%2.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60,958.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26,135.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,823.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12,191.607,619.754,571.85
Cash Retained (M)34,823.0034,823.0034,823.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-12,191.60-7,619.75-4,571.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)22,631.4027,203.2530,251.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,242.0022,242.0022,242.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.221.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.221.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.192.402.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$156.34$510.79$545.05
Upside / Downside1,027.19%3,582.71%3,829.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60,958.0064,920.2769,140.0973,634.1978,420.4283,517.7486,023.28
Payout Ratio42.87%52.30%61.72%71.15%80.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26,135.0033,952.6742,676.2152,390.3763,187.0675,165.9779,571.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31,439.5331,737.5432,035.54
Year 2 PV (M)36,592.3437,289.3237,992.88
Year 3 PV (M)41,596.6142,790.7044,007.43
Year 4 PV (M)46,455.4648,242.0150,079.60
Year 5 PV (M)51,171.9653,643.5956,209.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,361,246.051,426,994.741,495,259.79
Equity Value (M)1,568,501.961,640,697.901,715,585.04
Shares Outstanding (M)22,242.0022,242.0022,242.00
Fair Value$70.52$73.77$77.13
Upside / Downside408.43%431.84%456.11%

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