Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tropical Canning (Thailand) Public Company Limited (TC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.40 - $9.77$7.98
Multi-Stage$9.75 - $10.69$10.22
Blended Fair Value$9.10
Current Price$5.25
Upside73.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.79%0.00%0.100.500.150.250.120.150.050.100.150.15
YoY Growth---80.00%233.33%-40.00%108.33%-20.00%200.00%-50.00%-33.33%0.00%49.99%
Dividend Yield--1.65%8.17%1.78%2.92%2.12%6.03%1.29%3.30%4.53%3.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)233.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)134.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.7829.2417.54
Cash Retained (M)134.89134.89134.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.78-29.24-17.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.11105.65117.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)330.89330.89330.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate-0.19%0.81%1.81%
Fair Value$6.40$7.98$9.77
Upside / Downside21.96%51.97%86.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)233.89235.79237.70239.63241.57243.53250.84
Payout Ratio42.33%51.86%61.40%70.93%80.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.00122.28145.94169.97194.38219.18232.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.63%8.63%8.63%
Growth Rate-0.19%0.81%1.81%
Year 1 PV (M)111.46112.57113.69
Year 2 PV (M)121.24123.68126.15
Year 3 PV (M)128.70132.61136.59
Year 4 PV (M)134.15139.61145.23
Year 5 PV (M)137.87144.92152.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,594.252,726.842,864.80
Equity Value (M)3,227.683,380.233,538.71
Shares Outstanding (M)330.89330.89330.89
Fair Value$9.75$10.22$10.69
Upside / Downside85.80%94.59%103.71%

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