Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Centre Testing International Group Co. Ltd. (300012.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.67 - $117.08$109.72
Multi-Stage$15.95 - $17.47$16.69
Blended Fair Value$63.21
Current Price$12.86
Upside391.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.28%15.48%0.100.060.060.040.040.040.050.030.030.03
YoY Growth--59.34%1.87%68.13%-6.94%-0.89%-12.13%31.04%21.59%12.05%6.83%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.48%0.30%0.19%0.14%0.26%0.51%0.68%0.60%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)986.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)168.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)817.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)197.32123.3374.00
Cash Retained (M)817.76817.76817.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-197.32-123.33-74.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)620.43694.43743.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,675.881,675.881,675.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.410.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.410.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.67$109.72$117.08
Upside / Downside216.24%753.20%810.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)986.611,050.741,119.041,191.781,269.251,351.751,392.30
Payout Ratio17.11%31.69%46.27%60.85%75.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)168.86333.00517.77725.15957.301,216.571,287.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.72%6.72%6.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)309.10312.03314.96
Year 2 PV (M)446.10454.60463.18
Year 3 PV (M)579.93596.58613.54
Year 4 PV (M)710.64737.97766.08
Year 5 PV (M)838.28878.76920.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,843.6424,995.3026,191.04
Equity Value (M)26,727.6927,975.2429,269.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,675.881,675.881,675.88
Fair Value$15.95$16.69$17.47
Upside / Downside24.02%29.80%35.81%

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