Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

National Central Cooling Company PJSC (TABREED.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.92 - $39.53$16.55
Multi-Stage$4.51 - $4.92$4.71
Blended Fair Value$10.63
Current Price$2.87
Upside270.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.32%29.62%0.160.140.060.050.100.090.080.060.060.06
YoY Growth--14.95%130.64%6.54%-45.24%10.53%18.75%23.08%8.33%-6.19%427.07%
Dividend Yield--5.75%4.15%1.95%2.22%3.66%4.99%5.06%4.09%3.15%5.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)564.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)440.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)124.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)112.9970.6242.37
Cash Retained (M)124.35124.35124.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-112.99-70.62-42.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.3753.7481.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,841.962,841.962,841.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.92$16.55$39.53
Upside / Downside175.79%476.48%1,277.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)564.94601.66640.76682.41726.77774.01797.23
Payout Ratio77.99%80.39%82.79%85.20%87.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)440.58483.67530.51581.38636.63696.61737.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.62%7.62%7.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)445.21449.43453.65
Year 2 PV (M)449.48458.04466.69
Year 3 PV (M)453.42466.43479.69
Year 4 PV (M)457.02474.60492.67
Year 5 PV (M)460.31482.54505.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,548.1511,057.6311,586.61
Equity Value (M)12,813.5813,388.6613,984.93
Shares Outstanding (M)2,841.962,841.962,841.96
Fair Value$4.51$4.71$4.92
Upside / Downside57.10%64.15%71.46%

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