Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PACCAR Inc (PCAR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$376.69 - $1,015.62$951.78
Multi-Stage$149.22 - $163.05$156.00
Blended Fair Value$553.89
Current Price$98.32
Upside463.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.98%13.88%4.342.881.911.342.352.161.531.061.571.29
YoY Growth--50.70%51.15%41.91%-42.89%8.89%41.56%44.06%-32.68%21.87%9.09%
Dividend Yield--4.46%2.34%2.61%2.29%3.80%5.30%3.32%2.40%3.51%3.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,690.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,251.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)439.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)538.18336.36201.82
Cash Retained (M)439.80439.80439.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-538.18-336.36-201.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-98.38103.44237.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)526.77526.77526.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.190.200.45
LTM Dividend per Share4.274.274.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.190.200.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.094.474.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Fair Value$376.69$951.78$1,015.62
Upside / Downside283.12%868.04%932.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,690.902,865.003,050.363,247.713,457.833,681.553,791.99
Payout Ratio83.66%84.92%86.19%87.46%88.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,251.102,433.092,629.212,840.533,068.183,313.393,507.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Year 1 PV (M)2,260.722,282.152,303.59
Year 2 PV (M)2,269.872,313.112,356.77
Year 3 PV (M)2,278.562,343.992,410.66
Year 4 PV (M)2,286.812,374.772,465.26
Year 5 PV (M)2,294.612,405.472,520.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,212.5870,459.9273,831.58
Equity Value (M)78,603.1482,179.4285,888.43
Shares Outstanding (M)526.77526.77526.77
Fair Value$149.22$156.00$163.05
Upside / Downside51.77%58.67%65.83%

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