Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AS MADARA Cosmetics (MDARA.RG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.79 - $127.17$67.66
Multi-Stage$29.39 - $32.06$30.70
Blended Fair Value$49.18
Current Price$13.50
Upside264.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.27%0.00%0.580.350.500.400.150.120.090.050.030.01
YoY Growth--65.79%-29.92%25.04%168.38%25.00%33.33%68.54%66.67%164.08%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.32%2.33%3.06%1.45%0.75%1.51%1.12%0.71%0.44%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.270.790.48
Cash Retained (M)2.842.842.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.27-0.79-0.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.572.042.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.783.783.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.540.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.540.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.341.471.55
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.79$67.66$127.17
Upside / Downside216.94%401.20%841.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.356.767.207.678.178.708.96
Payout Ratio55.30%62.24%69.18%76.12%83.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.514.214.985.846.787.838.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3.833.873.90
Year 2 PV (M)4.134.214.29
Year 3 PV (M)4.414.534.66
Year 4 PV (M)4.664.845.02
Year 5 PV (M)4.905.135.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)89.1593.4697.93
Equity Value (M)111.08116.04121.18
Shares Outstanding (M)3.783.783.78
Fair Value$29.39$30.70$32.06
Upside / Downside117.67%127.40%137.48%

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