Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

IDP Education Limited (IEL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.29 - $98.02$36.02
Multi-Stage$13.17 - $14.35$13.75
Blended Fair Value$24.88
Current Price$3.67
Upside577.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS21.52%2.63%0.180.450.340.130.230.070.170.130.110.17
YoY Growth---59.62%30.43%155.56%-41.52%236.69%-59.46%34.33%12.00%-34.82%23.08%
Dividend Yield--4.94%3.02%1.56%0.57%0.94%0.44%0.93%1.20%2.20%4.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)177.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)175.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.4522.1613.29
Cash Retained (M)1.911.911.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.45-22.16-13.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-33.55-20.25-11.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)278.82278.82278.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.07-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.12-0.07-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.29$36.02$98.02
Upside / Downside452.77%881.35%2,570.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)177.26188.78201.05214.12228.04242.86250.14
Payout Ratio98.92%97.14%95.35%93.57%91.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)175.35183.38191.71200.35209.30218.57231.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)167.98169.57171.16
Year 2 PV (M)160.86163.92167.01
Year 3 PV (M)153.98158.41162.91
Year 4 PV (M)147.35153.02158.85
Year 5 PV (M)140.95147.76154.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,900.233,040.313,185.76
Equity Value (M)3,671.363,832.994,000.52
Shares Outstanding (M)278.82278.82278.82
Fair Value$13.17$13.75$14.35
Upside / Downside258.79%274.59%290.96%

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