Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Global Indemnity Group, LLC (GBLI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.11 - $18.59$15.81
Multi-Stage$21.28 - $23.27$22.25
Blended Fair Value$19.03
Current Price$29.05
Upside-34.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.39%0.00%1.381.021.031.031.021.021.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--36.08%-0.82%-0.45%1.26%0.21%1.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.02%3.37%3.64%3.95%3.43%3.98%3.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.583.492.09
Cash Retained (M)8.348.348.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.58-3.49-2.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.764.856.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.0114.0114.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.350.45
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.350.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.591.741.84
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.11$15.81$18.59
Upside / Downside-54.88%-45.57%-36.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27.9027.6227.3427.0726.8026.5327.33
Payout Ratio70.11%74.09%78.06%82.04%86.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.5620.4621.3522.2123.0523.8825.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18.4318.6218.81
Year 2 PV (M)17.3217.6718.03
Year 3 PV (M)16.2316.7317.24
Year 4 PV (M)15.1715.8016.45
Year 5 PV (M)14.1514.8915.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)216.78228.07239.82
Equity Value (M)298.07311.77326.00
Shares Outstanding (M)14.0114.0114.01
Fair Value$21.28$22.25$23.27
Upside / Downside-26.76%-23.40%-19.90%

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