Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (GALP.LS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.26 - $48.48$32.82
Multi-Stage$29.77 - $32.64$31.18
Blended Fair Value$32.00
Current Price$16.10
Upside98.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.57%4.31%0.560.570.560.670.530.750.690.660.520.43
YoY Growth---0.71%0.48%-15.66%25.13%-28.67%8.98%4.28%26.87%21.62%15.77%
Dividend Yield--3.47%3.60%5.39%5.80%5.39%7.20%4.75%4.30%3.65%3.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)975.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)480.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)495.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)195.00121.8873.13
Cash Retained (M)495.00495.00495.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-195.00-121.88-73.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)300.00373.13421.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)745.02745.02745.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.500.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.500.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.91%6.91%6.91%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Fair Value$23.26$32.82$48.48
Upside / Downside44.48%103.84%201.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)975.001,007.241,040.541,074.941,110.481,147.201,181.62
Payout Ratio49.23%57.38%65.54%73.69%81.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)480.00578.00681.95792.15908.891,032.481,093.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.91%6.91%6.91%
Growth Rate2.31%3.31%4.31%
Year 1 PV (M)535.40540.64545.87
Year 2 PV (M)585.14596.64608.24
Year 3 PV (M)629.61648.25667.26
Year 4 PV (M)669.15695.70723.03
Year 5 PV (M)704.13739.22775.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,059.3720,009.2420,996.61
Equity Value (M)22,182.8023,229.6824,316.71
Shares Outstanding (M)745.02745.02745.02
Fair Value$29.77$31.18$32.64
Upside / Downside84.94%93.66%102.73%

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