Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

First Business Financial Services, Inc. (FBIZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$211.43 - $1,203.81$386.84
Multi-Stage$124.35 - $136.02$130.08
Blended Fair Value$258.46
Current Price$51.26
Upside404.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.79%9.37%1.020.930.820.760.690.640.600.560.510.47
YoY Growth--9.79%13.31%8.47%9.09%8.36%6.10%8.33%8.67%9.43%12.37%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.58%2.69%2.31%2.81%4.14%2.92%2.22%1.98%2.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.286.433.86
Cash Retained (M)42.0542.0542.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.28-6.43-3.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.7735.6338.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.148.148.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.904.384.69
LTM Dividend per Share1.151.151.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.904.384.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.055.535.84
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$211.43$386.84$1,203.81
Upside / Downside312.47%654.67%2,248.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.4054.7458.3062.0966.1370.4272.54
Payout Ratio18.19%32.55%46.91%61.28%75.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.3517.8227.3538.0550.0263.3867.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16.3416.5016.65
Year 2 PV (M)23.0023.4423.88
Year 3 PV (M)29.3430.1831.04
Year 4 PV (M)35.3736.7338.13
Year 5 PV (M)41.1143.0945.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)866.55908.40951.86
Equity Value (M)1,011.711,058.351,106.72
Shares Outstanding (M)8.148.148.14
Fair Value$124.35$130.08$136.02
Upside / Downside142.58%153.76%165.36%

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