Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Caisse Régionale de Crédit Agricole Mutuel Alpes Provence Société coopérative (CRAP.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$703.77 - $1,587.88$1,021.10
Multi-Stage$1,369.05 - $1,506.69$1,436.54
Blended Fair Value$1,228.82
Current Price$94.51
Upside1,200.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.57%3.04%3.452.962.331.422.352.512.322.151.902.28
YoY Growth--16.54%26.83%63.72%-39.50%-6.13%8.03%7.73%13.50%-16.79%-10.67%
Dividend Yield--4.10%4.19%3.79%1.80%2.34%1.99%2.13%2.17%2.29%3.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)219.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.2833.9320.36
Cash Retained (M)219.60219.60219.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.28-33.93-20.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)165.32185.68199.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.447.447.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share22.2224.9526.78
LTM Dividend per Share6.966.966.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share22.2224.9526.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend29.1831.9233.74
WACC / Discount Rate5.23%5.23%5.23%
Growth Rate1.04%2.04%3.04%
Fair Value$703.77$1,021.10$1,587.88
Upside / Downside644.65%980.41%1,580.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.40276.94282.60288.37294.25300.26309.27
Payout Ratio19.09%33.27%47.45%61.63%75.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.8092.13134.09177.73223.09270.24286.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.23%5.23%5.23%
Growth Rate1.04%2.04%3.04%
Year 1 PV (M)86.7087.5588.41
Year 2 PV (M)118.73121.09123.48
Year 3 PV (M)148.08152.52157.05
Year 4 PV (M)174.91181.93189.17
Year 5 PV (M)199.36209.42219.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,458.919,936.3410,432.85
Equity Value (M)10,186.6810,688.8611,210.85
Shares Outstanding (M)7.447.447.44
Fair Value$1,369.05$1,436.54$1,506.69
Upside / Downside1,348.58%1,419.99%1,494.22%

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