Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.47 - $64.27$53.42
Multi-Stage$77.05 - $84.86$80.88
Blended Fair Value$67.15
Current Price$47.89
Upside40.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.460.400.360.003.740.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--15.60%10.49%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.17%0.69%0.57%0.00%12.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.3447.0928.25
Cash Retained (M)351.73351.73351.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.34-47.09-28.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)276.38304.64323.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)68.6368.6368.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.034.444.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.034.444.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.394.805.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.90%7.90%7.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$43.47$53.42$64.27
Upside / Downside-9.24%11.55%34.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376.71372.94369.21365.52361.87358.25369.00
Payout Ratio6.63%23.31%39.98%56.65%73.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.9986.92147.61207.08265.34322.42341.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.90%7.90%7.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)79.7480.5581.37
Year 2 PV (M)124.24126.79129.36
Year 3 PV (M)159.90164.84169.89
Year 4 PV (M)187.97195.76203.79
Year 5 PV (M)209.54220.45231.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,526.334,762.035,007.44
Equity Value (M)5,287.715,550.415,823.65
Shares Outstanding (M)68.6368.6368.63
Fair Value$77.05$80.88$84.86
Upside / Downside60.89%68.88%77.19%

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