Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$195.57 - $549.98$304.36
Multi-Stage$132.29 - $144.53$138.30
Blended Fair Value$221.33
Current Price$187.22
Upside18.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.93%5.58%2.242.140.002.011.881.761.741.711.641.48
YoY Growth--5.03%0.00%-100.00%6.83%6.71%1.36%1.78%3.99%11.02%13.61%
Dividend Yield--1.20%1.14%0.00%1.21%1.42%1.80%2.05%2.30%1.79%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,554.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)437.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,117.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)310.83194.27116.56
Cash Retained (M)1,117.091,117.091,117.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-310.83-194.27-116.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)806.25922.821,000.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.85194.85194.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.144.745.13
LTM Dividend per Share2.242.242.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.144.745.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.386.987.38
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$195.57$304.36$549.98
Upside / Downside4.46%62.57%193.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,554.171,655.191,762.781,877.361,999.392,129.352,193.23
Payout Ratio28.12%40.50%52.87%65.25%77.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)437.08670.33932.051,224.961,552.021,916.412,028.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)609.53615.31621.08
Year 2 PV (M)770.64785.32800.14
Year 3 PV (M)920.97947.40974.34
Year 4 PV (M)1,061.021,101.831,143.80
Year 5 PV (M)1,191.311,248.851,308.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,223.7522,248.8623,313.21
Equity Value (M)25,777.2226,947.5728,161.16
Shares Outstanding (M)194.85194.85194.85
Fair Value$132.29$138.30$144.53
Upside / Downside-29.34%-26.13%-22.80%

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