Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Japan Logistics Fund, Inc. (8967.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59,830.89 - $87,778.44$73,282.16
Multi-Stage$113,198.03 - $123,968.55$118,480.30
Blended Fair Value$95,881.23
Current Price$93,800.00
Upside2.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%3,520.383,494.143,422.313,145.684,759.210.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.75%2.10%8.79%-33.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.92%4.09%3.42%2.93%4.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,684.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19,738.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,945.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,336.902,710.561,626.34
Cash Retained (M)1,945.661,945.661,945.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,336.90-2,710.56-1,626.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,391.24-764.90319.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.782.782.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share-859.60-274.97114.79
LTM Dividend per Share7,095.717,095.717,095.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-859.60-274.97114.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend6,236.106,820.747,210.50
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$59,830.89$73,282.16$87,778.44
Upside / Downside-36.21%-21.87%-6.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,684.4921,467.6521,252.9721,040.4420,830.0420,621.7421,240.39
Payout Ratio91.03%90.82%90.62%90.41%90.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19,738.8419,497.3319,258.6919,022.8718,789.8418,559.5619,647.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)17,835.3218,017.3218,199.31
Year 2 PV (M)16,115.2916,445.8516,779.77
Year 3 PV (M)14,561.0715,011.3815,470.88
Year 4 PV (M)13,156.6713,701.9514,264.01
Year 5 PV (M)11,887.6612,506.6813,151.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)241,338.31253,905.36266,990.55
Equity Value (M)314,894.32329,588.53344,855.74
Shares Outstanding (M)2.782.782.78
Fair Value$113,198.03$118,480.30$123,968.55
Upside / Downside20.68%26.31%32.16%

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