Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Runner (Xiamen) Corp. (603408.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.34 - $42.81$27.87
Multi-Stage$14.98 - $16.30$15.63
Blended Fair Value$21.75
Current Price$12.27
Upside77.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.41%0.00%0.690.510.430.410.370.320.290.590.350.00
YoY Growth--35.23%18.48%3.98%11.78%14.77%10.49%-50.61%67.28%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.11%3.60%3.54%3.35%2.29%1.43%1.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)433.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)333.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.7754.2332.54
Cash Retained (M)100.51100.51100.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.77-54.23-32.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.7446.2867.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)442.80442.80442.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.100.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.100.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.34$27.87$42.81
Upside / Downside57.62%127.16%248.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)433.84462.04492.08524.06558.12594.40612.23
Payout Ratio76.83%79.47%82.10%84.73%87.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)333.33367.17403.99444.05487.61534.96566.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)331.33334.47337.61
Year 2 PV (M)328.98335.24341.57
Year 3 PV (M)326.30335.67345.22
Year 4 PV (M)323.34335.78348.57
Year 5 PV (M)320.11335.58351.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,001.355,242.915,493.73
Equity Value (M)6,631.426,919.657,218.32
Shares Outstanding (M)442.80442.80442.80
Fair Value$14.98$15.63$16.30
Upside / Downside22.05%27.36%32.86%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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