Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China CITIC Bank Corporation Limited (601998.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.70 - $10.94$9.30
Multi-Stage$12.54 - $13.71$13.11
Blended Fair Value$11.20
Current Price$8.50
Upside31.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.05%9.76%0.500.360.330.260.250.220.240.200.170.00
YoY Growth--39.24%7.27%29.77%4.98%12.67%-7.45%18.99%14.24%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--7.03%5.75%6.17%5.07%4.51%4.21%3.68%3.07%2.59%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69,564.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47,918.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,646.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13,912.808,695.505,217.30
Cash Retained (M)21,646.0021,646.0021,646.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-13,912.80-8,695.50-5,217.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,733.2012,950.5016,428.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59,830.7459,830.7459,830.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.220.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.220.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.70$9.30$10.94
Upside / Downside-9.39%9.36%28.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69,564.0068,868.3668,179.6867,497.8866,822.9066,154.6768,139.31
Payout Ratio68.88%73.11%77.33%81.55%85.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47,918.0050,347.3652,723.3455,046.7757,318.4659,539.2063,028.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45,376.0745,839.1046,302.12
Year 2 PV (M)42,825.5943,704.0444,591.41
Year 3 PV (M)40,297.9141,544.1542,815.82
Year 4 PV (M)37,817.7239,385.0941,000.68
Year 5 PV (M)35,404.1437,247.7239,167.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)548,344.31576,897.87606,628.71
Equity Value (M)750,065.74784,617.96820,506.04
Shares Outstanding (M)59,830.7459,830.7459,830.74
Fair Value$12.54$13.11$13.71
Upside / Downside47.49%54.28%61.34%

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