Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. (601328.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.12 - $100.45$51.52
Multi-Stage$22.63 - $24.64$23.62
Blended Fair Value$37.57
Current Price$6.72
Upside459.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.55%10.41%0.670.650.630.570.360.450.310.410.320.26
YoY Growth--3.56%2.96%9.97%60.17%-19.76%45.18%-25.61%28.74%24.21%3.49%
Dividend Yield--9.02%10.01%12.33%11.21%7.22%8.64%4.86%6.67%5.14%4.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94,890.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)87,512.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,378.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,978.0011,861.257,116.75
Cash Retained (M)7,378.007,378.007,378.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,978.00-11,861.25-7,116.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11,600.00-4,483.25261.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77,692.4677,692.4677,692.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.15-0.060.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.15-0.060.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.12$51.52$100.45
Upside / Downside378.01%666.69%1,394.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94,890.00101,057.85107,626.61114,622.34122,072.79130,007.52133,907.75
Payout Ratio92.22%91.78%91.33%90.89%90.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)87,512.0092,750.6498,300.56104,180.10110,408.66117,006.77123,864.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)84,518.9285,320.0586,121.18
Year 2 PV (M)81,626.3083,181.0584,750.47
Year 3 PV (M)78,830.8081,093.7583,399.59
Year 4 PV (M)76,129.2179,056.9382,068.28
Year 5 PV (M)73,518.4377,069.4080,756.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,363,223.021,429,067.201,497,431.39
Equity Value (M)1,757,846.681,834,788.371,914,527.18
Shares Outstanding (M)77,692.4677,692.4677,692.46
Fair Value$22.63$23.62$24.64
Upside / Downside236.69%251.43%266.70%

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