Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Smart-Core Holdings Limited (2166.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.64 - $5.43$4.50
Multi-Stage$5.42 - $5.94$5.68
Blended Fair Value$5.09
Current Price$1.67
Upside204.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.57%0.00%0.070.060.120.080.040.060.050.020.070.00
YoY Growth--15.71%-51.39%48.53%96.31%-34.07%20.98%150.23%-67.82%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.45%3.73%5.29%5.26%3.37%4.26%3.09%1.23%3.31%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)207.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)78.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)128.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.4525.9115.54
Cash Retained (M)128.44128.44128.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.45-25.91-15.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)86.99102.54112.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)473.68473.68473.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.14%9.14%9.14%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Fair Value$3.64$4.50$5.43
Upside / Downside118.21%169.21%225.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)207.26208.45209.64210.85212.06213.28219.67
Payout Ratio38.03%48.42%58.82%69.21%79.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)78.81100.93123.30145.93168.81191.95203.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.14%9.14%9.14%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Year 1 PV (M)91.5692.4893.40
Year 2 PV (M)101.47103.52105.59
Year 3 PV (M)108.94112.25115.64
Year 4 PV (M)114.32118.98123.78
Year 5 PV (M)117.92123.96130.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,033.452,137.622,246.03
Equity Value (M)2,567.662,688.822,814.69
Shares Outstanding (M)473.68473.68473.68
Fair Value$5.42$5.68$5.94
Upside / Downside224.59%239.91%255.82%

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