Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Anhui Gujing Distillery Co., Ltd. (000596.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$169.52 - $362.29$241.31
Multi-Stage$131.61 - $143.30$137.35
Blended Fair Value$189.33
Current Price$160.58
Upside17.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.94%29.80%4.533.002.211.441.431.430.950.570.100.19
YoY Growth--50.73%35.76%53.85%0.54%0.09%50.00%66.67%500.00%-50.00%-42.86%
Dividend Yield--2.66%1.12%0.75%0.84%0.68%1.25%0.88%0.97%0.19%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,730.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,192.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,538.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)946.19591.37354.82
Cash Retained (M)1,538.721,538.721,538.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-946.19-591.37-354.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)592.53947.351,183.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)528.48528.48528.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.792.24
LTM Dividend per Share6.046.046.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.792.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.167.838.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$169.52$241.31$362.29
Upside / Downside5.57%50.27%125.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,730.965,038.475,365.975,714.766,086.226,481.836,676.28
Payout Ratio67.48%71.98%76.49%80.99%85.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,192.243,626.714,104.184,628.405,203.425,833.646,175.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,267.333,298.303,329.27
Year 2 PV (M)3,331.083,394.533,458.58
Year 3 PV (M)3,384.303,481.453,580.45
Year 4 PV (M)3,427.733,559.563,695.14
Year 5 PV (M)3,462.093,629.313,802.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,680.0355,224.4957,866.34
Equity Value (M)69,552.5672,587.6475,732.70
Shares Outstanding (M)528.48528.48528.48
Fair Value$131.61$137.35$143.30
Upside / Downside-18.04%-14.46%-10.76%

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