Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.,Ltd. (000088.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.92 - $20.45$10.92
Multi-Stage$4.75 - $5.18$4.96
Blended Fair Value$7.94
Current Price$4.43
Upside79.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.47%26.15%0.170.050.040.010.020.030.020.020.030.03
YoY Growth--257.53%9.48%471.44%-67.67%-15.94%18.40%29.05%-25.95%-6.51%58.73%
Dividend Yield--3.67%1.02%0.88%0.15%0.40%0.70%0.38%0.28%0.35%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,416.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)755.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)660.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)283.24177.03106.22
Cash Retained (M)660.57660.57660.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-283.24-177.03-106.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)377.33483.54554.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,199.485,199.485,199.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6.92$10.92$20.45
Upside / Downside56.10%146.52%361.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,416.201,508.261,606.291,710.701,821.901,940.321,998.53
Payout Ratio53.36%60.69%68.01%75.34%82.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)755.63915.291,092.501,288.891,506.191,746.291,848.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)833.17841.07848.97
Year 2 PV (M)905.27922.51939.92
Year 3 PV (M)972.181,000.091,028.53
Year 4 PV (M)1,034.161,073.931,114.84
Year 5 PV (M)1,091.451,144.171,198.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,838.2120,796.4021,791.26
Equity Value (M)24,674.4425,778.1726,922.41
Shares Outstanding (M)5,199.485,199.485,199.48
Fair Value$4.75$4.96$5.18
Upside / Downside7.12%11.91%16.88%

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