Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.78 - $71.59$56.93
Multi-Stage$35.41 - $38.64$36.99
Blended Fair Value$46.96
Current Price$191.49
Upside-75.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.42%16.19%0.030.020.020.020.020.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--111.14%-0.75%-0.25%1.01%1.28%5.12%8.80%30.65%22.54%14.52%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.02%0.06%0.08%0.11%0.21%0.34%0.25%0.40%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)99,198.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)977.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98,221.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19,839.6012,399.757,439.85
Cash Retained (M)98,221.0098,221.0098,221.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-19,839.60-12,399.75-7,439.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)78,381.4085,821.2590,781.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,583.0024,583.0024,583.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.193.493.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.193.493.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.233.533.73
WACC / Discount Rate13.11%13.11%13.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.78$56.93$71.59
Upside / Downside-76.61%-70.27%-62.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)99,198.00105,645.87112,512.85119,826.19127,614.89135,909.86139,987.15
Payout Ratio0.98%18.79%36.59%54.39%72.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)977.0019,848.6641,169.5165,178.2192,134.10122,318.87129,488.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.11%13.11%13.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)17,384.0717,548.8517,713.63
Year 2 PV (M)31,580.3132,181.8332,789.02
Year 3 PV (M)43,788.8445,045.8646,326.71
Year 4 PV (M)54,212.7956,297.6658,442.09
Year 5 PV (M)63,036.9566,081.6669,242.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)660,370.09692,266.21725,383.08
Equity Value (M)870,373.05909,422.06949,897.41
Shares Outstanding (M)24,583.0024,583.0024,583.00
Fair Value$35.41$36.99$38.64
Upside / Downside-81.51%-80.68%-79.82%

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