Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. (601881.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.42 - $220.64$206.77
Multi-Stage$32.93 - $35.97$34.42
Blended Fair Value$120.60
Current Price$17.15
Upside603.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.20%16.97%0.390.280.340.230.150.080.110.140.290.11
YoY Growth--39.28%-18.58%52.64%52.30%77.78%-25.00%-22.58%-49.80%159.54%35.23%
Dividend Yield--2.35%2.31%3.43%2.27%1.43%0.88%0.88%1.39%2.14%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,130.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,924.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)206.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,426.171,516.35909.81
Cash Retained (M)206.07206.07206.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,426.17-1,516.35-909.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2,220.09-1,310.28-703.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,934.4010,934.4010,934.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.12-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.091.091.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.12-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$85.42$206.77$220.64
Upside / Downside398.10%1,105.64%1,186.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,130.8312,919.3413,759.1014,653.4415,605.9116,620.2917,118.90
Payout Ratio98.30%96.64%94.98%93.32%91.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,924.7612,485.3813,068.4913,674.6614,304.4214,958.2615,834.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11,602.8111,712.7911,822.77
Year 2 PV (M)11,286.2211,501.1911,718.19
Year 3 PV (M)10,974.9111,289.9611,610.98
Year 4 PV (M)10,668.8111,079.1111,501.12
Year 5 PV (M)10,367.8510,868.6211,388.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)305,205.51319,947.05335,252.78
Equity Value (M)360,106.11376,398.71393,294.40
Shares Outstanding (M)10,934.4010,934.4010,934.40
Fair Value$32.93$34.42$35.97
Upside / Downside92.03%100.72%109.73%

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