DDM Analysis: 0512.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$216.25 - $254.78	$238.76
Multi-Stage	$64.38 - $70.56	$67.41
Blended Fair Value	$153.09
Current Price	$8.72
Upside	1,655.59%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	25.67%	0.00%	0.26	0.14	0.11	0.11	0.09	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	83.22%	27.27%	0.00%	20.42%	11.63%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.41%	3.55%	2.42%	1.73%	1.35%	1.96%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,488.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,845.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,642.26

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	897.61	561.00	336.60
Cash Retained (M)	2,642.26	2,642.26	2,642.26
(-) Cash Required (M)	-897.61	-561.00	-336.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,744.65	2,081.26	2,305.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,503.30	3,503.30	3,503.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.50	0.59	0.66
LTM Dividend per Share	0.53	0.53	0.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.50	0.59	0.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.02	1.12	1.19
WACC / Discount Rate	5.08%	5.08%	5.08%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$216.25	$238.76	$254.78
Upside / Downside	2,379.91%	2,638.11%	2,821.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,488.04	4,779.76	5,090.44	5,421.32	5,773.71	6,149.00	6,333.47
Payout Ratio	41.13%	50.90%	60.68%	70.45%	80.23%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,845.78	2,432.96	3,088.68	3,819.36	4,631.98	5,534.10	5,858.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.08%	5.08%	5.08%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,293.56	2,315.30	2,337.04
Year 2 PV (M)	2,744.88	2,797.16	2,849.94
Year 3 PV (M)	3,199.75	3,291.61	3,385.20
Year 4 PV (M)	3,658.20	3,798.89	3,943.59
Year 5 PV (M)	4,120.25	4,319.26	4,525.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	209,518.65	219,638.48	230,145.61
Equity Value (M)	225,535.29	236,160.69	247,187.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,503.30	3,503.30	3,503.30
Fair Value	$64.38	$67.41	$70.56
Upside / Downside	638.28%	673.06%	709.16%

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Financial Statements

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Grand Pharmaceutical Group Limited (0512.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener