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Grand Pharmaceutical Group Limited (0512.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106.99 - $254.78$238.76
Multi-Stage$37.52 - $41.07$39.26
Blended Fair Value$139.01
Current Price$8.72
Upside1,494.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.67%0.00%0.260.140.110.110.090.080.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--83.22%27.27%0.00%20.42%11.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.41%3.55%2.42%1.73%1.35%1.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,488.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,845.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,642.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)897.61561.00336.60
Cash Retained (M)2,642.262,642.262,642.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-897.61-561.00-336.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,744.652,081.262,305.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,503.303,503.303,503.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.66
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.590.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.121.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$106.99$238.76$254.78
Upside / Downside1,126.99%2,638.11%2,821.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,488.044,779.765,090.445,421.325,773.716,149.006,333.47
Payout Ratio41.13%50.90%60.68%70.45%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,845.782,432.963,088.683,819.364,631.985,534.105,858.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,262.792,284.242,305.69
Year 2 PV (M)2,671.732,722.622,773.99
Year 3 PV (M)3,072.703,160.913,250.79
Year 4 PV (M)3,465.833,599.113,736.21
Year 5 PV (M)3,851.224,037.234,230.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)116,133.50121,742.79127,566.77
Equity Value (M)131,457.77137,546.91143,863.81
Shares Outstanding (M)3,503.303,503.303,503.30
Fair Value$37.52$39.26$41.07
Upside / Downside330.32%350.25%370.93%

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