DDM Analysis: 603823.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.02 - $11.25	$8.16
Multi-Stage	$9.68 - $10.64	$10.15
Blended Fair Value	$9.15
Current Price	$15.83
Upside	-42.18%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.41%	3.07%	0.17	0.18	0.25	0.20	0.18	0.15	0.11	0.13	0.13	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	-9.14%	-27.69%	25.87%	11.35%	16.46%	39.32%	-12.72%	-1.80%	-3.32%	9.26%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.63%	2.32%	1.69%	1.94%	1.42%	0.97%	0.99%	1.49%	0.77%	1.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	167.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	66.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)	101.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	33.53	20.96	12.57
Cash Retained (M)	101.40	101.40	101.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-33.53	-20.96	-12.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	67.87	80.44	88.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	415.46	415.46	415.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.19	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.19	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.32	0.35	0.37
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	1.07%	2.07%	3.07%
Fair Value	$6.02	$8.16	$11.25
Upside / Downside	-61.97%	-48.48%	-28.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	167.66	171.12	174.66	178.27	181.95	185.71	191.28
Payout Ratio	39.52%	49.62%	59.71%	69.81%	79.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	66.26	84.91	104.29	124.45	145.39	167.14	176.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	1.07%	2.07%	3.07%
Year 1 PV (M)	78.95	79.73	80.52
Year 2 PV (M)	90.18	91.98	93.79
Year 3 PV (M)	100.06	103.06	106.12
Year 4 PV (M)	108.71	113.07	117.57
Year 5 PV (M)	116.21	122.07	128.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,529.15	3,707.24	3,892.44
Equity Value (M)	4,023.27	4,217.16	4,418.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	415.46	415.46	415.46
Fair Value	$9.68	$10.15	$10.64
Upside / Downside	-38.83%	-35.88%	-32.81%

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Lily Group Co., Ltd. (603823.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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