DDM Analysis: 000962.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.35 - $27.24	$16.81
Multi-Stage	$8.02 - $8.76	$8.38
Blended Fair Value	$12.60
Current Price	$24.40
Upside	-48.38%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.35%	-12.17%	0.06	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.05	0.07	0.10	0.15
YoY Growth	-	-	1,193.79%	-22.43%	34.90%	-68.70%	-57.77%	-41.37%	-22.96%	-33.56%	-32.65%	-24.46%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.35%	0.04%	0.05%	0.04%	0.16%	0.51%	0.62%	0.95%	0.92%	1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	265.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	66.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)	198.98

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	53.08	33.18	19.91
Cash Retained (M)	198.98	198.98	198.98
(-) Cash Required (M)	-53.08	-33.18	-19.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)	145.89	165.80	179.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	502.33	502.33	502.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.33	0.36
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.29	0.33	0.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.42	0.46	0.49
WACC / Discount Rate	9.43%	9.43%	9.43%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$11.35	$16.81	$27.24
Upside / Downside	-53.48%	-31.10%	11.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	265.41	282.66	301.03	320.60	341.44	363.63	374.54
Payout Ratio	25.03%	38.02%	51.02%	64.01%	77.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	66.43	107.48	153.58	205.22	262.93	327.27	346.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.43%	9.43%	9.43%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	97.30	98.22	99.14
Year 2 PV (M)	125.86	128.26	130.68
Year 3 PV (M)	152.24	156.61	161.07
Year 4 PV (M)	176.57	183.36	190.35
Year 5 PV (M)	198.96	208.57	218.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,276.11	3,434.35	3,598.64
Equity Value (M)	4,027.04	4,209.37	4,398.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	502.33	502.33	502.33
Fair Value	$8.02	$8.38	$8.76
Upside / Downside	-67.14%	-65.66%	-64.11%

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Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Co., Ltd. (000962.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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