Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Co., Ltd. (000962.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.35 - $27.24$16.81
Multi-Stage$8.02 - $8.76$8.38
Blended Fair Value$12.60
Current Price$24.40
Upside-48.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.35%-12.17%0.060.000.010.000.010.030.050.070.100.15
YoY Growth--1,193.79%-22.43%34.90%-68.70%-57.77%-41.37%-22.96%-33.56%-32.65%-24.46%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.04%0.05%0.04%0.16%0.51%0.62%0.95%0.92%1.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)198.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.0833.1819.91
Cash Retained (M)198.98198.98198.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.08-33.18-19.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)145.89165.80179.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)502.33502.33502.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.35$16.81$27.24
Upside / Downside-53.48%-31.10%11.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265.41282.66301.03320.60341.44363.63374.54
Payout Ratio25.03%38.02%51.02%64.01%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.43107.48153.58205.22262.93327.27346.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)97.3098.2299.14
Year 2 PV (M)125.86128.26130.68
Year 3 PV (M)152.24156.61161.07
Year 4 PV (M)176.57183.36190.35
Year 5 PV (M)198.96208.57218.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,276.113,434.353,598.64
Equity Value (M)4,027.044,209.374,398.42
Shares Outstanding (M)502.33502.33502.33
Fair Value$8.02$8.38$8.76
Upside / Downside-67.14%-65.66%-64.11%

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