Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Port of Tauranga Limited (POT.NZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.52 - $9.92$7.37
Multi-Stage$5.86 - $6.39$6.12
Blended Fair Value$6.74
Current Price$6.85
Upside-1.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.02%4.40%0.160.150.150.140.120.180.180.170.160.11
YoY Growth--6.07%-1.34%7.15%12.91%-32.24%1.67%6.45%5.62%50.94%3.92%
Dividend Yield--2.29%3.07%2.40%2.25%1.76%2.37%2.86%3.31%3.59%2.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)264.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.8433.0319.82
Cash Retained (M)15.9215.9215.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.84-33.03-19.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-36.93-17.11-3.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)681.68681.68681.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.03-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.03-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Fair Value$5.52$7.37$9.92
Upside / Downside-19.34%7.56%44.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)264.22276.49289.33302.76316.82331.53341.48
Payout Ratio93.98%93.18%92.39%91.59%90.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.30257.64267.30277.30287.66298.38315.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate3.64%4.64%5.64%
Year 1 PV (M)233.12235.37237.62
Year 2 PV (M)218.85223.09227.38
Year 3 PV (M)205.43211.44217.56
Year 4 PV (M)192.83200.38208.15
Year 5 PV (M)180.98189.88199.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,965.653,111.503,263.04
Equity Value (M)3,996.864,171.664,352.88
Shares Outstanding (M)681.68681.68681.68
Fair Value$5.86$6.12$6.39
Upside / Downside-14.40%-10.66%-6.78%

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