Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Altria Group, Inc. (MO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$131.10 - $408.00$210.04
Multi-Stage$449.49 - $495.10$471.85
Blended Fair Value$340.95
Current Price$66.06
Upside416.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.44%5.81%4.064.023.913.823.733.603.212.852.672.48
YoY Growth--0.97%2.73%2.37%2.48%3.64%12.08%12.65%6.54%7.97%7.37%
Dividend Yield--6.76%9.29%8.76%7.31%7.28%9.30%5.56%4.57%3.74%3.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,869.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,385.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)484.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,773.801,108.63665.18
Cash Retained (M)484.00484.00484.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,773.80-1,108.63-665.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,289.80-624.63-181.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,688.001,688.001,688.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.76-0.37-0.11
LTM Dividend per Share4.974.974.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.76-0.37-0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.204.604.86
WACC / Discount Rate3.66%3.66%3.66%
Growth Rate0.44%1.44%2.44%
Fair Value$131.10$210.04$408.00
Upside / Downside98.45%217.96%517.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,869.008,996.339,125.499,256.509,389.409,524.209,809.92
Payout Ratio94.54%93.63%92.73%91.82%90.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,385.008,423.658,461.678,499.058,535.768,571.789,074.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.66%3.66%3.66%
Growth Rate0.44%1.44%2.44%
Year 1 PV (M)8,046.438,126.558,206.66
Year 2 PV (M)7,720.817,875.328,031.36
Year 3 PV (M)7,407.657,631.127,859.05
Year 4 PV (M)7,106.507,393.787,689.68
Year 5 PV (M)6,816.907,163.107,523.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)721,645.10758,293.39796,415.71
Equity Value (M)758,743.39796,483.26835,725.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,688.001,688.001,688.00
Fair Value$449.49$471.85$495.10
Upside / Downside580.43%614.28%649.47%

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