Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Greene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.82 - $394.17$369.39
Multi-Stage$49.81 - $54.55$52.14
Blended Fair Value$210.76
Current Price$22.60
Upside832.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.86%9.55%0.260.190.130.150.140.130.120.090.110.11
YoY Growth--38.12%47.88%-16.82%8.40%8.58%9.87%33.49%-20.52%3.56%3.11%
Dividend Yield--1.16%0.62%0.54%0.54%0.79%1.21%0.87%0.55%0.75%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.754.222.53
Cash Retained (M)29.2729.2729.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.75-4.22-2.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.5225.0526.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.0317.0317.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.321.471.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.321.471.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.591.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$112.82$369.39$394.17
Upside / Downside399.20%1,534.48%1,644.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.7535.9438.2840.7643.4146.2447.62
Payout Ratio13.26%28.61%43.96%59.30%74.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.4810.2816.8324.1832.4141.6144.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9.529.619.70
Year 2 PV (M)14.4314.7014.98
Year 3 PV (M)19.1919.7420.31
Year 4 PV (M)23.8224.7425.68
Year 5 PV (M)28.3329.6931.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)752.89789.25827.01
Equity Value (M)848.18887.74928.79
Shares Outstanding (M)17.0317.0317.03
Fair Value$49.81$52.14$54.55
Upside / Downside120.42%130.70%141.36%

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