Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Avia Avian Tbk (AVIA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$232.73 - $346.81$287.02
Multi-Stage$332.48 - $362.87$347.39
Blended Fair Value$317.21
Current Price$408.00
Upside-22.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS2.36%0.00%22.1222.3618.3038.5611.4919.690.0019.750.000.00
YoY Growth---1.09%22.22%-52.55%235.71%-41.67%199,999,900.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.45%4.07%3.08%4.94%1.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,693,711.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,337,793.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)355,918.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)338,742.20211,713.88127,028.33
Cash Retained (M)355,918.00355,918.00355,918.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-338,742.20-211,713.88-127,028.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,175.80144,204.13228,889.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60,948.3060,948.3060,948.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.282.373.76
LTM Dividend per Share21.9521.9521.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.282.373.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.2324.3225.71
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate0.36%1.36%2.36%
Fair Value$232.73$287.02$346.81
Upside / Downside-42.96%-29.65%-15.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,693,711.001,716,668.031,739,936.231,763,519.811,787,423.061,811,650.291,865,999.80
Payout Ratio78.99%81.19%83.39%85.59%87.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,337,793.001,393,740.901,450,959.691,509,473.551,569,307.061,630,485.261,726,049.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.94%9.94%9.94%
Growth Rate0.36%1.36%2.36%
Year 1 PV (M)1,255,199.581,267,707.121,280,214.66
Year 2 PV (M)1,176,838.391,200,408.651,224,212.61
Year 3 PV (M)1,102,599.331,135,889.691,169,843.48
Year 4 PV (M)1,032,359.331,074,126.581,117,148.57
Year 5 PV (M)965,985.431,015,082.401,066,155.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,730,944.7915,479,656.6716,258,506.83
Equity Value (M)20,263,926.8621,172,871.1222,116,081.84
Shares Outstanding (M)60,948.3060,948.3060,948.30
Fair Value$332.48$347.39$362.87
Upside / Downside-18.51%-14.86%-11.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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